The Actuarial Society

Football is the most popular and widely played sport on Earth, with over 5 billion people who are involved with the sport in one way or another. With such a vast audience, the footballing world has always incorporated new technological advances and innovation to the game to keep it interesting for the fans in a bid to create a sport that supersedes time. Statistics is a huge part of the game, the way it is played and the advances in technology that are being incorporated into the most widely played sport. Over the last decade, statistics has been incorporated heavily into football. Players and clubs now have data on their minute-to-minute performance which enables them to better improve their game and perform at their peaks for longer. Football has come a long way in terms of how it has been played over the past few decades and statistics and data analytics have been at the forefront of this change. The game of football revolves around numbers, from the simplest data such as goals scor

                                                                             We have all had days when we wished we could just accurately predict the weather, may it be for our dinner dates or even a long vacation. But alas, nature isn't that predictable. It is complex to predict how the weather will behave in the coming hours, days, weeks and months. The only one thing we can do to get the best and closest results is to calculate the probabilities of the prevalence of particular weather conditions. But the question is how? Lets understand the process- We begin with gathering the observations from all around the world and then use these observations to set up a computer simulation of the atmosphere which represents what is happening in the world right now. The model that is developed predicts/ calculates how the atmosphere will evolve over the coming days. Unfortunately, there can be a presence of uncertainties in the forecast.  Thus, many companies have developed sophisticated tec

The Paradox goes around the well-known fairy-tale princess participating in an experiment. The experiment commences on a Sunday. The princess is told that she will be put to sleep and the experiment will proceed on the toss of a fair coin. If the coin comes up heads, she will be awakened on Monday, interviewed and put back to sleep. However, the princess will have no recollection of the interview or being woken up. If the coin turns up tails, the princess will be woken up on Monday and Tuesday, will be interviewed and be put back to sleep with zero recollection. In either case, the experiment ends on waking up the princess on Wednesday without the interview aspect.  Whenever Sleeping Beauty is awakened and interviewed, she will not be aware of the day or whether she has been awakened before. During each awakening, she is questioned- “What is your degree of certainty* that the coin landed heads?”  Upon basic analysis we figured out that since the Princess will have absolutely zero recol